New Delhi (India), July 7: The global financial markets have been volatile since the turn of 2020. Events such as the global pandemic, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, US Fed tapering and surges in energy prices have ushered a period of heightened uncertainty, triggering inflationary pressure and recessionary apprehensions. However, some financial institutions are highlighting countries in South and Southeast Asia as bright spots, particularly India.
Christopher Wood, the global head of equities at the brokerage group of Jefferies, believes that the Indian Sensex will reach 1,00,000 by late 2026. To arrive at this target, Wood made two assumptions: a 15% EPS growth and an earnings multiple of 19.4, a five-year average.
“It will only be a matter of time before Sensex reaches 100,000 level. India is still like all long-term bull markets. Indian stock market will continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry,” Wood said.
Wood’s bullish outlook for India is supported by a number of factors, including the country’s strong economic growth, its favourable demographics, and its improving corporate earnings. Additionally, Wood believes that the recent decline in the Nifty’s price-to-earnings premium to China’s Hang Seng Index makes Indian equities more attractive to investors.
According to official data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India, domestic equity mutual fund inflows in the first two months of 2023 amounted to 282.33 billion rupees ($3.43 billion). This suggests that Indian investors are equally bullish on their country’s stock market. If Wood’s predictions are correct, the Sensex could reach 100,000 by late 2026, making it one of the most valuable stock markets in the world.
“Additional factors that could support India’s stock market in the coming years would be the continued growth of the Indian middle class, the rise of India as a global manufacturing hub, the government’s continuing focus on infrastructure development, and the increasing adoption of technology by Indian businesses,” says financial expert Mr. Kishore Subramanian.
Of course, there are also some risks to India’s stock market, such as escalation of the Ukraine war, uncertainty in the lead up the 2024 Indian elections, the possibility of a global recession, etc. However, Wood believes that these risks are outweighed by the long-term positive factors that are driving India’s economic growth.
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